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The Black Hole Presents: Final Oscar Predictions

Monday, February 20, 2012

First off, I don't care.

I don't care about this year. Too many films that I cared about were snubbed out of the big categories. Indeed, of my top 4, only The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo garnered a major nomination, and it only got one. Such is life.

But, I do want to stay relevant with my contemporaries, so here are my final predictions on who will take home gold next Sunday.

Best Adapted Screenplay: It's gonna be The Descendants. It's the only category where the two front runners aren't going head to head, so there's no chance this one won't win. As much as I would like to see Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy pick up the win, that's a vain hope. Payne will walk away with this one.

Best Original Screenplay: As much as I would like to say The Artist will sweep the board with its major noms, I can't here. I'm sorry, but I think Midnight In Paris is gonna take this one. I mean, The Artist didn't require that much of a screenplay, did it? It's all a bunch of action, but no words. Meanwhile, Allen's dialogue is fast and furious, bitingly funny, and wonderfully poignant. And it just picked up the WGA. Yeah, that's gonna win.

Best Supporting Actress: Shit, I don't know. Just by glancing at the wins so far this season, I'd say it's going to go to Octavia Spencer for The Help, though it could just as easily go to Jessica Chastain, not because her work in The Help was any better, but because her work everywhere else was. I'd say it's between those two. Janet McTeer has been nowhere, Bérénice Bejo doesn't have the momentum of her costar, and Melissa McCarthy, though deserving, was too crass to be seriously considered. If I had to make a final prediction, and I do, I'd give it Spencer. She has enough momentum to carry her through to the end.

Best Supporting Actor: No competition. Christopher Plummer will take this one home! Kenneth Branagh, Jonah Hill, and Nick Nolte have absolutely no chance, and Max Von Sydow just hasn't been seen enough. Plummer, meanwhile, has been in the forefront of everyone's mind since Beginners first came out. He'll win, no doubt about it.

Best Actress: Ooo, I just don't know. Ordinarily I'd say Streep would take it, but The Iron Lady has been being ripped to shreds by the critics and public, which doesn't help her case. Ditto with Albert Nobbs. So we have to two favorites suddenly at a disadvantage. Who does that leave us? Well, I'd say Michelle Williams is out. My Week With Marilyn hasn't been doing all that well this season. Which leaves us with Viola Davis and Rooney Mara. If I ran this, Mara would win in a landslide, but there is no way the Academy will go for a character like that. Which leaves us with Davis, who, like Spencer, has been doing quite well for herself this season. I still think that Streep will take it home, if only because the Academy is probably fed up by now of nominating her and not having her win, but if anyone can challenge her at this point, I'd say it would be Davis.

That being said, if Mara wins, I will be the happiest bastard in the world!

Best Actor: It's between Clooney and Dujardin. Pitt had a good run, but has waned in the past months. No one had even heard of Demián Bichir until he got nominated, and he still doesn't stand a chance now. And Gary Oldman, I'm sorry to say, just hasn't built up the momentum. Granted, the Academy might bow to him, because he likely won't get another chance at a win, and we know Clooney and Dujardin will. It's not likely however. It's too close to call between these two. Both of them picked up Globes, and have been doing well for themselves elsewhere. However, Dujardin got the SAG, which is going to put him over the top in my book. I'm hoping against hope for Oldman, but if I was betting man, and I am, I'd put my money on Dujardin.

Best Director: Again, with The Artist and The Descendants. While the other directors present solid cases, they just don't have the push that these two do. Again, I think the guild awards will do the trick. The Artist got that one, and so, I think it's gonna win here.

Best Picture: See above. It's the exact same thing. Both The Artist and The Descendants have plenty of momentum, but The Artist has cleaned up at the guilds. This one is taking the big prize, believe me.


Ok, whatever. We only have a week to wait it out! Boo-ya-ka-sha! See ya later!

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